Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2014

Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2014 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2014 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2014 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 237,000** 116 101-132 87 56/99 147*** 86/99
Belly River 93,000* 121 108-136 97 66/99 129*** 86/99
Waterton River 177,000* 124 106-145 91 66/99 134*** 84/99
Oldman River near Brocket 309,000* 131 113-162 97 71/99 161*** 88/99
Oldman River at Lethbridge 984,000* 128 113-144 99 72/99 152*** 90/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2014 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2014 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca