Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2016

Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2016 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2016 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2016 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 147,000** 72 51-93 33 15/99 87*** 21/99
Belly River 66,000* 86 73-101 61 31/99 91*** 29/99
Waterton River 125,000* 87 70-109 55 39/99 92*** 27/99
Oldman River near Brocket 147,000* 62 44-94 28 18/99 70*** 17/99
Oldman River at Lethbridge 531,000* 69 54-85 40 24/99 68*** 16/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2016 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca