Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2002

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of June 1, 2002 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for June 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-May 2002 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 945,000* 106 91-130 77 54/84 52** 3/84
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 156,000* 106 72-134 64 51/84 67** 8/84
Spray River near Banff 333,000* 114 83-138 70 64/84 45** 1/84
Kananaskis River 352,000* 106 84-132 76 54/84 65** 9/84
Bow River at Calgary 2,110,000* 108 81-132 68 57/84 58** 3/84
Elbow River 161,000* 101 75-145 60 50/84 84** 30/84
Highwood River 446,000* 105 64-155 51 53/84 53** 13/84

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2002 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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