Mountain Water Supply Forecast Summary

Two major storms in late April and early May combined with rapid, early snowmelt have resulted in much-above-average runoff volumes this spring in the Red Deer and North Saskatchewan River basins. Runoff volume at the Dickson Dam for the March to May 2003 period was the second highest on record since 1912. However, because snowmelt volumes have come early, volumes for the June through September period are forecast to be below-average to average in the Red Deer and North Saskatchewan River basins, and below-average in the Bow, Oldman, and Milk River basins.

For the March through September runoff year, volume totals are forecast to be above-average in the Red Deer River basin, average in the North Saskatchewan River basin, and below-average in the Bow, Oldman, and Milk River basins. v Current forecasted volumes range from 74 to 118% of average for the March-September 2003 period (Table 1). Forecasted volumes are generally much higher than in 2001. Forecasted volumes are generally much higher than those recorded last year in the Red Deer and North Saskatchewan River basins, except for the Bighorn Reservoir, where forecasted volumes are 5% lower. Forecasted volumes are lower in the northern half of the Bow River basin, and much lower in the southern half of the Bow River basin as well as in the Milk and Oldman River basins.

These forecasts assume that precipitation over the summer period will be normal. Precipitation will have a major impact on the summer water supply forecast between now and the end of September. Streamflow volume forecasts will be updated monthly. Check our Forecaster's Comments throughout the month for updated information regarding runoff conditions.