Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2004

Table 3b - Water Supply Forecast as of June 1, 2004 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for June 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-May 2004 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 378,000** 78 61-118 51 26/91 76*** 20/91
Belly River 133,000* 82 69-123 55 18/91 97*** 47/91
Waterton River 289,000* 75 58-124 50 26/91 74*** 24/91
Oldman River near Brocket 514,000* 81 59-140 44 36/91 64*** 16/91
Oldman River at Lethbridge 1,352,000* 73 52-113 42 29/91 70*** 17/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca