Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2016

Water Supply Forecast as of June 1, 2016 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for June 1 to September 30, 2016 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-May 2016 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 368,000** 85 71-105 58 24/99 110*** 58/99
Belly River 142,000* 94 83-109 74 40/99 109*** 66/99
Waterton River 293,000* 85 72-106 60 30/99 124*** 72/99
Oldman River near Brocket 465,000* 80 70-90 60 34/99 97*** 35/99
Oldman River at Lethbridge 1,448,000* 80 67-94 54 36/99 95*** 33/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2016 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca