Plains Runoff Outlook

As of March 1, 2003, spring snowmelt runoff is forecast to be below-average to average for plains areas of the Peace River, Grande Prairie, Edson, and Slave Lake regions (Figure 1). Plains areas south of an arc connecting the Rocky Mountain House, Edmonton and Coronation regions are forecast to recieve below-average runoff. Snowpack is most of these areas ranges from near-average to much-above-average but soil moisture is generally much-below-average. South of Calgary and Medicine Hat, soil moisture conditions are near-normal however the snowpack is below-normal. Much-below-normal runoff is forecast for the High Level, Fort Chipewyan, Fort McMurray, Cold Lake, and Lloydminster regions, where snowpack and soil moisture are both generally much-below-normal.

Routine snow surveys to monitor snowpack on the plains will be performed again in late March. Further weather conditions leading up to spring could change this forecast considerably. Check the Forecaster's Comments on the department website throughout the month for the most current conditions.