Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

March 2005

Table 4 - Water Supply Forecast as of March 1, 2005 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2005
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2004 Volume as a % of Average
Bow River at Banff 1,054,000 98 86-119 77 42/91 88
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 181,000 97 81-134 71 42/91 108
Spray River near Banff 351,000 96 83-122 77 38/91 104
Kananaskis River 388,000 95 85-118 74 39/91 95
Bow River at Calgary 2,357,000 97 80-121 72 43/91 92
Elbow River 190,000 87 71-115 60 39/91 96
Highwood River 513,000 82 65-116 53 36/91 77

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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