Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2008

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2008 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2008 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2008 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 910,000* 89 82-100 76 26/91 87** 22/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 158,000* 93 79-116 68 40/91 68** 9/91
Spray River near Banff 336,000* 97 86-116 77 40/91 69** 5/91
Kananaskis River 373,000* 97 88-115 78 41/91 76** 11/91
Bow River at Calgary 2,046,000* 91 80-108 73 31/91 81** 16/91
Elbow River 187,000* 95 76-122 61 53/91 81** 19/91
Highwood River 467,000* 83 67-114 55 39/91 57** 22/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2008 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2008 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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