Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2009

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2009 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2009 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2009 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 907,000* 89 82-95 77 24/91 94** 38/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 145,000* 85 69-105 61 30/91 77** 23/91
Spray River near Banff 314,000* 91 80-106 74 32/91 105** 60/91
Kananaskis River 360,000* 93 82-105 75 35/91 88** 11/91
Bow River at Calgary 1,978,000* 88 77-99 71 27/91 97** 46/91
Elbow River 161,000* 82 66-99 58 37/91 120** 79/91
Highwood River 484,000* 86 58-117 52 41/91 87** 46/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2009 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2009 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca