Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2010

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2010 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2010 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2010 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,845,000* 87 81-92 77 11/32** 106**** 19/30
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,150,000* 87 72-102 62 17/44*** 59**** 1/41
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,436,000* 83 71-96 64 24/91 41**** 10/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2010 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data

**** Recorded 2010 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca