Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2015

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2015 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2015 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2015 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 872,000* 91 87-96 83 20/99 114** 83/99
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 133,000* 81 71-98 61 20/99 96** 51/99
Spray River near Banff 308,000* 92 84-100 76 33/99 95** 61/99
Kananaskis River 308,000* 86 75-99 65 17/99 172** 98/99
Bow River at Calgary 1,893,000* 89 83-94 78 24/99 111** 73/99
Elbow River 146,000* 80 67-80 56 30/99 117** 74/99
Highwood River 397,000*  79 60-98 43 31/99 244** 92/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2015 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2015 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca