Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2016

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2016 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2016 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2016 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 699,000* 73 69-78 65 2/99 181** 97/99
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 115,000* 71 54-87 40 8/99 119** 77/99
Spray River near Banff 304,000* 90 85-96 80 32/99 153** 44/99
Kananaskis River 305,000* 85 78-93 71 17/99 182** 75/99
Bow River at Calgary 1,723,000* 81 75-86 70 13/99 115** 50/99
Elbow River 137,000* 75 69-82 63 25/99 105** 54/99
Highwood River 318,000* 63 56-70 49 18/99 80** 33/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2016 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca