Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

November 2008

October 2008 Precipitation

Much below normal precipitation was recorded in most of the province, including the mountains and foothills. Northeastern Alberta recorded generally below normal to normal precipitation although the Fort McMurray area recorded above to much above normal precipitation. The Drumheller-Oyen area of south central Alberta also recorded above to much above normal precipitation. (Figure 1). October precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.
 

Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2008)

Much below normal precipitation was recorded in central areas of Alberta, from Medicine Hat through Calgary to Cold Lake and Grande Prairie. Generally above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in Lethbridge, Cypress Hills and Milk River in southeastern Alberta and at High Level in northeastern Alberta. Northern Alberta recorded generally below normal to normal precipitation, as did mountain and foothill areas west of Calgary and High River. Most other mountain and foothill areas recorded below to much below normal precipitation. (Figure 3). Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 4.

Alberta Agriculture models soil moisture for non-mountainous, agricultural areas of Alberta. Soil moisture at the end of October 2008 is illustrated in Figure 5, which shows almost all of southeastern and part of west central region are nearly wet and most of the agricultural areas in northwestern and north central Alberta are dry.

 

Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on November 1, 2008 for the November 2008 through January 2009 period is for above normal precipitation in most of northern Alberta, below normal precipitation in the Grande Prairie - Grande Cache area, and normal precipitation in the remender of the province. Below normal temperatures are forecast for northern Alberta and normal temperatures are forecast southern Alberta. Environment Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on October 16, 2008 for November 2008 through to the end of January 2009 is for an even chance of below normal, normal or above normal precipitation and temperatures southern Alberta. The NOAA reported on November 6, 2008 that ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Nino or La Nina) are likely to continue into early 2009. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.


For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca