Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

October 2006

September 2006 Precipitation

For the southern half of Alberta, generally much above normal precipitation was recorded in September, with the exception of the Drumheller-Pincher Creek-Medicine Hat region where precipitation was below to much below normal. In northern Alberta, general much below normal precipitation was recorded in September. The extremes in percent of normal precipitation in the province is because it was a generally dry month with the exception of one storm event, which moved through central and south-central regions in mid-September (Figure 1). September precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.
 

Summmer Precipitation (May 1, 2006 to August 31, 2006)

Most of southern Alberta, the Sundre-Rocky Mountain House region and areas along the entire eastern border with Saskatchewan recorded much above normal precipitation. Normal to above normal precipitation was recorded in the Medicine Hat and Fort McMurray to High Level areas. Below normal to normal precipitation was recorded for the remainder of the province (Figure 3). Summer precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 4.
 

Winter Precipitation (November 1, 2005 to April 30, 2006)

Most of northern and west central Alberta recorded below normal to normal winter precipitation. A few exceptions being small areas north of Fort McMurray and east of Red Deer, the town of Peace River, and the High Level region, where above normal to much above normal precipitation was recorded, and the area between Slave Lake, Edmonton, and Lac La Biche where much below normal precipitation was recorded. East central and southern plains areas of Alberta recorded much below normal precipitation with the exceptions of the Medicine Hat and Lloydminster areas where normal precipitation was recorded, and the Cypress Hills which recorded above normal winter precipitation. In the mountains, below normal to normal precipitation was recorded, with one exception being the Sunshine area (southwest of Banff) which recorded much above normal precipitation (Figure 5). Winter precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 6.
 

Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2005)

Much above normal precipitation was recorded in a band across the province from Peace River and Jasper to Cold Lake, whereas northeastern Alberta recorded normal precipitation and the northwestern corner of the province recorded below normal precipitation. Most of southern Alberta recorded below normal to normal precipitation except in Rocky Mountain House, High River, and Claresholm where much above normal precipitation occurred, and the Drumheller, Brooks, and Medicine Hat areas where much below normal precipitation was recorded (Figure 7). Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 8.

Soil moisture conditions in agricultural areas of the province, as measured by Alberta Agriculture for October 31, 2005 , can be seen in Figure 9. Soil moisture generally ranges from normal to an extreme surplus in southern and west central Alberta and the Cold Lake - Lloydminster area. Edmonton and the area north ranges from below to much below normal, and the Grande Prairie - High Level area ranges from well below normal to extreme deficit.

 

Water Year Precipitation (November 1, 2005 to September 30, 2006)

Below to much below normal precipitation was recorded in the northern half of Alberta and the central mountains and foothills, the exception being the High Level area which recorded normal precipitation. The southern mountains and foothills recorded below normal precipitation, and most southern plains areas recorded below normal to normal precipitation, except for the Lethbridge area which recorded much below normal precipitation (Figure 10). Precipitation totals for the water year November 1, 2005 to September 30, 2006 are illustrated in Figure 11.
 

Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on October 1, 2006 for the October through December 2006 period is for below normal precipitation in the southern half of Alberta and generally normal precipitation for the northern half, except in the High Level and Fort McMurray areas which are forecast to be above normal. Above normal temperatures are forecast throughout Alberta for the next three months. Environment Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on September 21, 2006 for October through to the end of December 2006 is for above normal temperatures for southern Alberta. An equal chance of above normal, normal and below normal precipitation is forecast for the next three months for most of southern Alberta, except for the southwest corner of Alberta which is forecast to have below normal precipitation for this period. The NOAA is reporting that El Nino conditions have developed and are expected to continue into early 2007. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca