Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

June 2006

Bow River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of June 1, 2006, natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2006 period are forecast to be generally below average to average in the Bow River basin, ranging from below average in the Highwood River to average into the Spray Lakes Reservoir (Table 5a). Current natural runoff volume forecasts range from 79 to 102% of average in the basin. Current forecasts have risen by 1 to 7% of average since the May 1 forecasts, except for the Highwood and Elbow River forecasts which dropped 5%. The current forecasted volume for the Bow River at Calgary would rank 41st lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001).

The first three months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-May 2006 recorded natural runoff volumes ranging from 108 to 148 % of average in the basin (above to much above average), except the Elbow River which was 76% of average (below average) and the Highwood River which was 57% of average (below to much below average). Recorded volume data is preliminary, and is subject to change. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 5b. Below average to average natural runoff volumes are forecast for the June - September 2006 period.

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