Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2004

North Saskatchewan River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of August 1, 2004, natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2004 period are forecast to be average at the Bighorn Reservoir, and much-below-average for the Brazeau Reservoir and the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton (Table 6a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 75 to 101% of average. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton would rank 10th lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001). The August 1 volume forecasts are 10% higher than last month's at the Bighorn Reservoir, 4% higher at the Brazeau Reservoir and 1% lower at Edmonton. Forecasts are 3% higher than volumes recorded over the same time period last year at the Bighorn Reservoir, 1% lower at the Brazeau Reservoir and 16% lower at Edmonton.

The first five months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-July 2004 recorded runoff volumes at Lake Abraham being average, the Brazeau Reservoir below to much below average, and Edmonton much below average. Recorded volume data is preliminary, and is subject to change. Current volumes represent approximately 75% of the total volumes forecasted (March-September). The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 6b. Below average runoff is forecasted for the August through September 2004 period at Edmonton and the Brazeau Reservoir, and average inflow is forecasted for the Bighorn Reservoir.

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