Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2006

Table 5b Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2006 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2006 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2006 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 259,000* 92 79-110 72 32/91 81** 15/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 34,200* 80 72-97 63 27/91 77** 19/91
Spray River near Banff 78,700* 94 85-114 76 40/91 106** 56/91
Kananaskis River 92,600* 88 83-111 76 28/91 88** 26/91
Bow River at Calgary 555,000* 89 74-107 67 31/91 87** 26/91
Elbow River 40,700* 84 70-123 66 38/91 80** 33/91
Highwood River 56,700* 65 49-116 46 33/91 71** 30/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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