Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2002

Table 3a - Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2002 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2001 Volume as a % of Average
St. Mary River 1,117,000* 149 137-160 127 80/84 53
Belly River 360,000 147 140-166 130 83/84 70
Waterton River 966,000 146 134-170 124 80/84 60
Oldman River near Brocket 1,688,000 153 143-160 134 76/84 47
Oldman River at Lethbridge 4,276,000 144 129-162 120 77/84 49

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Click here to see the table containing the remaining forecast for the season along with the recorded volume to date

* - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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