Water Supply Outlook March 2014
Updated: March 11, 2014
Mountain runoff forecasts (natural volumes for March to September 2014)
Milk River basin- Average for Milk River at Western Crossing
- Slightly below average for Milk River at Milk River and Milk River at Eastern Crossing
- Slightly below average
- Below average for the Bow River at Banff, Lake Minnewanka, Elbow River and Highwood River
- Slightly below average for Kananaskis River and Bow River at Calgary
- Average for Spray River near Banff
- Slightly above average for the Red Deer River at Dickson Dam
- Average for Red Deer River at Red Deer
- Slightly below average
Precipitation can have a major impact on water supply between now and the end of September. The forecasts above assume that precipitation over the remainder of the winter period and through the summer will be normal. The range of possible precipitation scenarios is large however, and as a result, probable range forecasts and a minimal precipitation forecast of natural runoff volume are also provided for each individual basin. Since more information becomes known over time, forecast ranges will narrow. Streamflow volume forecasts are updated monthly from February to May, and again in July.
Check our Forecaster's Comments throughout the month for updated information regarding runoff conditions.
Mountain snowpack
Snow accumulations measured in the mountains as of March 1, 2014:
- Oldman River basin: Ranging from slightly below average to slightly above average with the exception of Lee Creek in the middle St. Mary basin where it has much above average snowpack.
- Bow River basin: Ranging from slightly below average to average for most of the basin and above average for the southern edge of the basin.
- Red Deer, North Saskatchewan, Athabasca River basins:
Highly variable in the North Saskatchewan River basin, below average to much above average.
Slightly below average to slightly above average in the Athabasca River basin.
Average in thr Red Deer River basin.
- Upper Peace River basin in British Columbia: slightly below to slightly above normal, as indicated in British Columbia's Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin
Mountain snowpack is an important source of water supply to reservoirs in the spring. Accumulation at this time of year typically accounts for nearly three-quarters of the seasonal total.
Plains Spring Snowmelt Runoff Forecasts
Conditions are variable across the province, please refer to the map in the Plains Runoff Forecast section of our Maps and Data Summaries webpage.
Plains snowpack
- Map of Snow course measurements taken at the end of February and the beginning of March in many areas of central and northern Alberta. Cypress Hills snow measurements were taken in mid-February.
- Environment Canada map of satellite estimation of plains snow water equivalent (SWE) as of March 7, 2014 is shown here.
- Alberta Agriculture publishes maps of modelled plains snow accumulations and accumulations as compared to normal.
Precipitation
Contoured maps of precipitation amounts and as a percent of normal for the past month and for current and recent seasons are available here. Maps of precipitation amounts for the most recent day, week and month to date are available here.
Soil Moisture
Alberta Agriculture models soil moisture for non-mountainous, agricultural areas of Alberta. Modelled soil moisture compared to average as of February 25, 2014 is available here.
Long Lead Precipitation Outlooks
Environment Canada (issued on February 28, 2014): Temperatures and precipitation are forecast to be normal for the March through May 2014 period.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (issued on February 20, 2014): An equal chance of below normal, normal or above normal temperature and precipitation in Alberta for March through May 2014.
Climate indicators: The NOAA reported on March 6, 2014 that ENSO-neutral condition is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere in spring 2014.
Note that forecasting weather for such a long time period into the future is very difficult, and so the historical accuracy has been variable, dependent on location and time period, and is often low, more so for precipitation than temperature. Environment Canada provides an assessment of their forecast method's historical accuracy on their website.
Reservoir storage
Water storage volumes in the major irrigation and hydroelectric reservoirs of the Milk, Oldman, Bow, Red Deer North Saskatchewan, and Athabasca River basins is updated each weekday and is available in the Provincial Reservoir Storage Summary.
Questions
Background information on the Water Supply Outlook is available in Frequently Asked Questions
Media Contact:
Communications Division, Alberta Environment
Phone: (780) 427-6267
