Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2002

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2002 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2002 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 1,013,000* 99 86-117 78 40/84 71** 2/84
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 173,000* 100 73-128 64 45/84 60** 4/84
Spray River near Banff 335,000* 97 78-125 73 38/84 48** 1/84
Kananaskis River 374,000* 96 80-117 74 37/84 67** 2/84
Bow River at Calgary 2,241,000* 99 78-120 69 43/84 62** 2/84
Elbow River 173,000* 87 63-119 56 37/84 73** 4/84
Highwood River 491,000* 86 56-123 44 37/84 43** 5/84

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2002 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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