Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2002

Table 2b Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2002 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume
in dam3
Volume as a
% of Median
Probable Range as a % of Median Reasonable Minimum as
% of Median
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2002 Volume as a % of Median Ranking (lowest to highest)
Milk River at
Western Crossing
17,600* 53 28-89 17 20/63** 62*** 21/63**
Milk River
at Milk River
29,400* 57 32-86 22 22/84 42*** 14/84
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing
31,200* 53 24-89 14 24/84 29*** 6/84

* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** Western Crossing data is from 1931-95
*** Recorded 2002 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Median is calculated for period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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