Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2002

Table 6b - Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2002 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2002 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,942,000* 91 84-100 83 8/31** 118**** 16/18
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,209,000* 91 79-115 71 13/32*** 31**** 1/29
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,714,000* 87 74-107 69 30/84 65**** 21/84

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** Lake Abraham is compared to 31 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 32 years of data
**** Recorded 2002 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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