Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

January 2007

December 2006 Precipitation

Much below normal precipitation was recorded throughout the majority of the province in December. Exceptions include below normal to normal precipitation in most mountain areas, at Lloydminister, and in the Grande Prairie-Whitecourt-Hinton and Cypress Hills (southeast of Medicine Hat) areas. Cold Lake recorded above normal precipitation, and above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in three small areas, northwest of Calgary, west of Banff and between Red Deer and Camrose (Figure 1). December precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.

Winter Precipitation (November 1, 2006 to December 31, 2006)

Above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in most of north central Alberta, in mountain and foothills regions from Banff to Montana and in the Cypress Hills area. The remainder of the province generally recorded below to much below normal precipitation, except for normal precipitation along northern border areas (Figure 3). Winter precipitation totals are illustrated in (Figure 4).

Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2006)

Much below to below normal precipitation was recorded in most of the northern one-third of the province, the Medicine Hat-Brooks-Lethbridge area, Drumheller and in most mountain and foothill regions. Generally above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in the plains and some foothills areas of Central Alberta, and in the Cypress Hills (Figure 5). Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 6.

Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on January 1, 2007 for the January through March 2007 period is for mainly normal precipitation in the province, except for below normal precipitation in the northeastern quarter of the province and above normal precipitation in the Cypress Hills area. Above normal temperatures are expected throughout Alberta for the next three months. Environment Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on December 21, 2006 for January through to the end of March 2007 is for below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for southern Alberta. The long range forecast for April through June 2007 is for an equal chance of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation and temperature for southern Alberta. The NOAA reported December 7, 2006 that El Nino conditions are likely to continue through May 2007. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.


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