Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2003

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2003 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2003 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 518,000* 92 82-106 73 28/85 98** 41/85
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 92,000* 104 87-139 66 51/85 118** 66/85
Spray River near Banff 167,000* 95 76-117 73 35/85 100** 45/85
Kananaskis River 182,000* 88 72-121 67 25/85 87** 28/85
Bow River at Calgary 1,146,000* 93 75-114 65 37/85 96** 40/85
Elbow River 76,800* 84 64-101 56 37/85 86** 38/85
Highwood River 128,000* 64 44-111 41 31/85 76** 29/85

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2003 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca