Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2002

Table 2a Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2002 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30
Locations Volume
in dam3
Volume as a % of Median Probable Range as a % of Median Reasonable Minimum as % of Median Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2001
Volume as a
% of Median
Milk River at
Western Crossing
31,200 55 40-76 34 19/63* 24
Milk River
at Milk River
45,200 47 34-63 28 16/84 24
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing
46,100 39 25-57 20 15/84 21

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Click here to see the table containing the remaining forecast for the season along with the recorded volume to date

* Western Crossing data is from 1931-95

Median is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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